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  <title>Watson's Ramblings</title>
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  <updated>2010-02-10T12:46:31.703125+00:00</updated>
  <author>
    <name>Noel Watson Consulting Ltd.</name>
  </author>
  <subtitle>Credit derivative adventures</subtitle>
  <id>http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/</id>
  <generator uri="http://www.dasblog.net" version="1.9.6264.0">DasBlog</generator>
  <entry>
    <title>Daily vs Annual interest spreadsheet </title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,fea12474-d236-44cb-b25c-05bb085dd917.aspx" />
    <id>http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,fea12474-d236-44cb-b25c-05bb085dd917.aspx</id>
    <published>2010-02-10T12:45:04.65625+00:00</published>
    <updated>2010-02-10T12:46:31.703125+00:00</updated>
    <category term="Excel" label="Excel" scheme="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CategoryView,category,Excel.aspx" />
    <category term="Finance" label="Finance" scheme="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CategoryView,category,Finance.aspx" />
    <content type="xhtml">
      <div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
        <p>
        </p>
        <a href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/content/binary/InterestRates.xls">InterestRates.xls
(60 KB)</a>
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    </content>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <title>Bulk update target framework to 3.5</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,58deaa08-72e1-4177-9c65-2dbaccd65aa9.aspx" />
    <id>http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,58deaa08-72e1-4177-9c65-2dbaccd65aa9.aspx</id>
    <published>2010-01-21T10:40:40.921875+00:00</published>
    <updated>2010-01-21T11:40:57.265625+00:00</updated>
    <category term=".NET" label=".NET" scheme="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CategoryView,category,.NET.aspx" />
    <content type="xhtml">
      <div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
        <p>
I am upgrading around 100 projects from 2.0 and 3.5 and was wondering if there was
a bulk update in VS 2008 that I wasn't aware of.
</p>
        <p>
 
</p>
        <p>
          <img src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/content/binary/TargetFramework2008.JPG" border="0" />
        </p>
        <p>
Doing some searching it would seem not
</p>
        <a href="http://stackoverflow.com/questions/1914489/change-the-target-framework-for-all-my-projects-in-a-visual-studio-2008-to-3-5">http://stackoverflow.com/questions/1914489/change-the-target-framework-for-all-my-projects-in-a-visual-studio-2008-to-3-5</a>
        <p>
One alternative would be write an application to add a few items to the csproj file.
</p>
        <p>
          <img src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/content/binary/configFileFor3.5.JPG" border="0" />
        </p>
        <p>
(System.Data.Entity added to target 3.5 SP1)
</p>
        <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">
          <font face="Arial" color="#000000">
            <a href="http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/bb398197.aspx">http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/bb398197.aspx</a>
          </font>
        </p>
        <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">
          <font face="Arial" color="#000000">
          </font> 
</p>
        <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt">
          <font face="Arial" color="#000000">In the end I did it manually</font>
        </p>
        <p>
 
</p>
        <p>
 
</p>
        <img width="0" height="0" src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/aggbug.ashx?id=58deaa08-72e1-4177-9c65-2dbaccd65aa9" />
      </div>
    </content>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <title>FTSE 100 performance over last decade</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,180d1ce5-adac-419d-9947-44d52862ff29.aspx" />
    <id>http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,180d1ce5-adac-419d-9947-44d52862ff29.aspx</id>
    <published>2010-01-15T11:33:43.8125+00:00</published>
    <updated>2010-01-15T12:24:24.140625+00:00</updated>
    <category term="Finance" label="Finance" scheme="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CategoryView,category,Finance.aspx" />
    <content type="xhtml">
      <div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
        <p>
There have been numerous article recently on the performance of the FTSE over the
last decade
</p>
        <p>
          <u>
            <font color="#800080">
              <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/ftse100/6913344/FTSE-100s-recent-rally-fails-to-make-up-for-a-lost-decade.html">http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/ftse100/6913344/FTSE-100s-recent-rally-fails-to-make-up-for-a-lost-decade.html</a>
            </font>
          </u>
        </p>
        <p>
with only a few commenting on the effect that dividends have on returns
</p>
        <p>
          <a href="http://business.scotsman.com/economics/Dividends-help-investments-pay-off.5951967.jp">http://business.scotsman.com/economics/Dividends-help-investments-pay-off.5951967.jp</a>
        </p>
        <p>
The FTSE 100 sans dividends is down 22% over the period
</p>
        <p>
          <img src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/content/binary/FTSE100graph.JPG" border="0" />
        </p>
        <p>
 
</p>
        <p>
          <img src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/content/binary/FTSE100yearly.JPG" border="0" />
        </p>
        <p>
whereas if we included dividends, we would get a return of around 8%
</p>
        <p>
          <img src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/content/binary/FTSE100TRgraph.JPG" border="0" />
        </p>
        <p>
 
</p>
        <p>
          <img src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/content/binary/FTSE100TRyearly.JPG" border="0" />
        </p>
        <p>
This is still pretty poor compared to the (very approx) 45% you would've got if you
had invested at the base rate
</p>
        <p>
 
</p>
        <p>
          <img src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/content/binary/BaseRateDecade.JPG" border="0" />
        </p>
        <p>
this emphasizes the point that to achieve returns in excess of risk free, one must
take a risk. The longer the investment, the less chance of being underwater at maturity,
but that risk will always be there.
</p>
        <img width="0" height="0" src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/aggbug.ashx?id=180d1ce5-adac-419d-9947-44d52862ff29" />
      </div>
    </content>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <title>House price predictions and sulking - update</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,21c61562-30c6-43f4-a477-eb18a56cba99.aspx" />
    <id>http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,21c61562-30c6-43f4-a477-eb18a56cba99.aspx</id>
    <published>2009-12-31T10:04:28.8125+00:00</published>
    <updated>2009-12-31T10:26:51.96875+00:00</updated>
    <category term="Housing market" label="Housing market" scheme="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CategoryView,category,Housing%2Bmarket.aspx" />
    <content type="xhtml">
      <div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
        <p>
Just over a year ago I commented on the fact that several bodies in the housing market
refused to give their predictions
</p>
        <p>
          <a href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CommentView,guid,87934429-905b-4f5e-8b88-8a876b6a3fbc.aspx">http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CommentView,guid,87934429-905b-4f5e-8b88-8a876b6a3fbc.aspx</a>
        </p>
        <p>
As it turns out, they were all wrong, with both Halifax and Nationwide showing gains
YOY.
</p>
        <p>
          <img src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/content/binary/HousepricesEndOf2009.gif" border="0" />
        </p>
        <p>
Whether this will continue when/if QE is withdrawn and interest rates rise remains
to be seen.
</p>
        <img width="0" height="0" src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/aggbug.ashx?id=21c61562-30c6-43f4-a477-eb18a56cba99" />
      </div>
    </content>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <title>Exam 70-451: Designing Database Solutions and Data Access Using Microsoft SQL Server 2008</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,629b4073-c285-4c9a-8169-eb7e00513c73.aspx" />
    <id>http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,629b4073-c285-4c9a-8169-eb7e00513c73.aspx</id>
    <published>2009-12-07T16:06:45.64+00:00</published>
    <updated>2009-12-10T17:05:19+00:00</updated>
    <content type="xhtml">
      <div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
        <a href="http://www.microsoft.com/learning/en/us/exam.aspx?ID=70-451">http://www.microsoft.com/learning/en/us/exam.aspx?ID=70-451</a>
        <p>
This was a lot easier than 70-433, and with no problems this time round
</p>
        <p>
          <a href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,52983d44-0dc9-45da-bc15-12edb0847f72.aspx">http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,52983d44-0dc9-45da-bc15-12edb0847f72.aspx</a>
        </p>
        <p>
I completed the test in around an hour
</p>
        <p>
 
</p>
        <p>
 
</p>
        <p>
 
</p>
        <p>
 
</p>
        <img width="0" height="0" src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/aggbug.ashx?id=629b4073-c285-4c9a-8169-eb7e00513c73" />
      </div>
    </content>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <title>SQL links (Locking/Isolation levels)</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,a876dc31-231a-442c-b032-6e787318024f.aspx" />
    <id>http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,a876dc31-231a-442c-b032-6e787318024f.aspx</id>
    <published>2009-12-02T07:29:06.468+00:00</published>
    <updated>2009-12-02T08:11:51.96875+00:00</updated>
    <category term="SQL" label="SQL" scheme="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CategoryView,category,SQL.aspx" />
    <content type="xhtml">
      <div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
        <p>
Snapshot vs. Serializable
</p>
        <p>
          <a href="http://blogs.msdn.com/craigfr/archive/2007/05/16/serializable-vs-snapshot-isolation-level.aspx">http://blogs.msdn.com/craigfr/archive/2007/05/16/serializable-vs-snapshot-isolation-level.aspx</a>
        </p>
        <p>
Partition level locking
</p>
        <p>
          <a href="http://www.sqlskills.com/BLOGS/PAUL/post/SQL-Server-2008-Partition-level-lock-escalation-details-and-examples.aspx">http://www.sqlskills.com/BLOGS/PAUL/post/SQL-Server-2008-Partition-level-lock-escalation-details-and-examples.aspx</a>
        </p>
        <p>
Lock compatibility
</p>
        <p>
          <a href="http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ms186396.aspx">http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ms186396.aspx</a>
        </p>
        <img width="0" height="0" src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/aggbug.ashx?id=a876dc31-231a-442c-b032-6e787318024f" />
      </div>
    </content>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <title>Excel: Link deleting add in</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,1b999b7d-7f45-41db-a203-b11fb45ed23c.aspx" />
    <id>http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,1b999b7d-7f45-41db-a203-b11fb45ed23c.aspx</id>
    <published>2009-12-01T16:21:50.546875+00:00</published>
    <updated>2009-12-01T16:21:50.546875+00:00</updated>
    <category term="Excel" label="Excel" scheme="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CategoryView,category,Excel.aspx" />
    <content type="xhtml">
      <div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
        <a href="http://support.microsoft.com/kb/188449">http://support.microsoft.com/kb/188449</a>
        <img width="0" height="0" src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/aggbug.ashx?id=1b999b7d-7f45-41db-a203-b11fb45ed23c" />
      </div>
    </content>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <title>Exam 70-433: SQL 2008 database development</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,52983d44-0dc9-45da-bc15-12edb0847f72.aspx" />
    <id>http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,52983d44-0dc9-45da-bc15-12edb0847f72.aspx</id>
    <published>2009-11-27T07:45:24.453+00:00</published>
    <updated>2009-11-27T09:11:48.390625+00:00</updated>
    <category term="Microsoft - Other" label="Microsoft - Other" scheme="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CategoryView,category,Microsoft%2B-%2BOther.aspx" />
    <category term="SQL" label="SQL" scheme="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CategoryView,category,SQL.aspx" />
    <content type="xhtml">
      <div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
        <a href="http://www.microsoft.com/learning/en/us/exam.aspx?ID=70-433">http://www.microsoft.com/learning/en/us/exam.aspx?ID=70-433</a>
        <p>
Sat my first exam over a decade ago, have done around 20 since then but haven't sat
any since 2003. I fancied looking at the 2008 qualification to see what was new in
2008 (currently have experience with SQL 7-2005). I bought the MS book
</p>
        <p>
          <a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/MCTS-Self-Paced-Training-Exam-70-433/dp/0735626391/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1259307240&amp;sr=8-1">http://www.amazon.co.uk/MCTS-Self-Paced-Training-Exam-70-433/dp/0735626391/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1259307240&amp;sr=8-1</a>
        </p>
        <p>
read that and then bought ther Transcender to see what areas the book hadn't covered
</p>
        <p>
          <a href="http://www.transcender.com/product.aspx?product_id=Cert-70-433">http://www.transcender.com/product.aspx?product_id=Cert-70-433</a>
        </p>
        <p>
The problems started when I attempted to book the test at a test centre near
me
</p>
        <p>
 
</p>
        <p>
          <img src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/content/binary/Prometricscreenshot.JPG" border="0" />
        </p>
        <p>
and got this message. I phoned up the help desk and was informed that this error message
indicated that the testing centre in question did not offer that particular exam.
Instead I booked the exam at QA in Holborn.
</p>
        <p>
I turned up at the testing centre yesterday and was informed that because of earlier
problems with the Prometric system, I wouldn't be able to start my exam at the scheduled
time. Eventually I was able to start at around 15 minutes after planned. 
</p>
        <p>
The first few questions were completely different to Transcender - fortunately I was
able to rely on experience gained over the years. The problems started when I got
to one of the questions as instead of seeing an embedded screenshot instead saw code
that was intended to display the image. Two other questions referred to an exhibit,
but teh exhibit button was nowhere to be seen! Another question had some XML that
wasn't displayed properly. Finally, one of the questions had two answer options that
appeared to be the same. 
</p>
        <p>
I complained to the attendant, he contacted Prometric and they suggested rebooting
the box. This made no difference - when rebooted the test continued where it had left
off. By this point I was fed up, and was seriously considering coming back another
when they had sorted the test out. However, when I completed the test I thought I
may as well go back through and check my reponses, and guess the questions mentioned
above. I completed the test and left a few choice comments. It took an age for the
results to come up, and imagine my surprise when I had passed! 
</p>
        <p>
The drama wasn't over yet. I went up to reception to pick up my exam results. However,
the results had not yet been printed. After the drama, I was convinced that the results
had been lost, but after waiting around for quarter of an hour, the printer was fixed
and I had my piece of paper. Next stop 70-451
</p>
        <p>
 
</p>
        <img width="0" height="0" src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/aggbug.ashx?id=52983d44-0dc9-45da-bc15-12edb0847f72" />
      </div>
    </content>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <title>Markit create sovereign indices</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,7afb31c2-0b3c-438e-842b-2b222bd76a15.aspx" />
    <id>http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,7afb31c2-0b3c-438e-842b-2b222bd76a15.aspx</id>
    <published>2009-06-29T10:03:59.9375+01:00</published>
    <updated>2009-06-29T10:05:57.9375+01:00</updated>
    <category term="Credit Derivatives" label="Credit Derivatives" scheme="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CategoryView,category,Credit%2BDerivatives.aspx" />
    <content type="xhtml">
      <div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
        <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/66f38cdc-6416-11de-a818-00144feabdc0.html">http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/66f38cdc-6416-11de-a818-00144feabdc0.html</a>
        <p>
        </p>
        <img width="0" height="0" src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/aggbug.ashx?id=7afb31c2-0b3c-438e-842b-2b222bd76a15" />
      </div>
    </content>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <title>Tradefair - FT offer</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,57f3a8c0-c58f-47ce-b8c0-ffc7b39c22fa.aspx" />
    <id>http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,57f3a8c0-c58f-47ce-b8c0-ffc7b39c22fa.aspx</id>
    <published>2009-04-29T07:10:52.015625+01:00</published>
    <updated>2009-04-29T07:10:52.015625+01:00</updated>
    <category term="Finance" label="Finance" scheme="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CategoryView,category,Finance.aspx" />
    <content type="xhtml">
      <div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
        <p>
Saw a leaflet in the FT today. Can't find it on the website, but found this
</p>
        <a href="http://www.spreadblogging.co.uk/2009/03/16/tradefair-offers-free-ft-for-one-year/">http://www.spreadblogging.co.uk/2009/03/16/tradefair-offers-free-ft-for-one-year/</a>
        <img width="0" height="0" src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/aggbug.ashx?id=57f3a8c0-c58f-47ce-b8c0-ffc7b39c22fa" />
      </div>
    </content>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <title>Halifax Q1 2009</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,c99a8711-9f63-4b72-b7e8-90e98583fd4f.aspx" />
    <id>http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,c99a8711-9f63-4b72-b7e8-90e98583fd4f.aspx</id>
    <published>2009-04-28T16:49:27.734375+01:00</published>
    <updated>2009-04-28T16:54:43.984375+01:00</updated>
    <category term="Housing market" label="Housing market" scheme="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CategoryView,category,Housing%2Bmarket.aspx" />
    <content type="xhtml">
      <div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
        <p>
          <a href="http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media1/research/qtrly_regional_comments.asp">http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media1/research/qtrly_regional_comments.asp</a>
        </p>
        <p>
Interesting to see that Greater London is already 25% off peak
</p>
        <p>
Was ~320k (this figure has been adjusted)
</p>
        <p>
          <a href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,f6aea8d2-ce5c-42d4-8d20-90fd4d636840.aspx">http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,f6aea8d2-ce5c-42d4-8d20-90fd4d636840.aspx</a>
        </p>
        <p>
(rows 1285 on 2nd and 3rd tabs)
</p>
        <p>
          <a href="http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/excel/24_04_09historicdata.xls">http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/excel/24_04_09historicdata.xls</a>
        </p>
        <p>
Now £241,306
</p>
        <p>
          <a href="http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/research/GreaterLondonQ12009.pdf">http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/research/GreaterLondonQ12009.pdf</a>
        </p>
        <img width="0" height="0" src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/aggbug.ashx?id=c99a8711-9f63-4b72-b7e8-90e98583fd4f" />
      </div>
    </content>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <title>Eric Rosenfeld Talking LTCM</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,2d9bc8b8-df52-40c4-b348-57821e5ee4c6.aspx" />
    <id>http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,2d9bc8b8-df52-40c4-b348-57821e5ee4c6.aspx</id>
    <published>2009-04-28T16:46:03.5+01:00</published>
    <updated>2009-04-28T16:47:43.203125+01:00</updated>
    <category term="Finance" label="Finance" scheme="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CategoryView,category,Finance.aspx" />
    <content type="xhtml">
      <div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
        <a href="http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/04/eric_rosenfeld.html">http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/04/eric_rosenfeld.html</a>
        <p>
Wikipedia page
</p>
        <p>
          <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Rosenfeld">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Rosenfeld</a>
        </p>
        <p>
Good read
</p>
        <p>
          <a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/When-Genius-Failed-Capital-Management/dp/1841155047/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1240932983&amp;sr=8-1">http://www.amazon.co.uk/When-Genius-Failed-Capital-Management/dp/1841155047/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1240932983&amp;sr=8-1</a>
        </p>
        <img width="0" height="0" src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/aggbug.ashx?id=2d9bc8b8-df52-40c4-b348-57821e5ee4c6" />
      </div>
    </content>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <title>When did mortgage approvals indicate trouble was ahead?</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,beaa82be-5825-48a1-9b75-b686354c0276.aspx" />
    <id>http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,beaa82be-5825-48a1-9b75-b686354c0276.aspx</id>
    <published>2009-03-10T13:28:01.71875+00:00</published>
    <updated>2009-03-10T14:01:56.984375+00:00</updated>
    <category term="Finance" label="Finance" scheme="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CategoryView,category,Finance.aspx" />
    <content type="xhtml">
      <div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
        <p>
I have mentioned before that there is a link between mortgage approvals and house
prices six months from now
</p>
        <p>
          <a href="http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/house_price_predictor/">http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/house_price_predictor/</a>
        </p>
        <p>
and I thought I would look at when approvals started heading south
</p>
        <p>
BBA:
</p>
        <p>
          <img src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/content/binary/BBALongTerm1.gif" border="0" />
        </p>
        <p>
 
</p>
        <p>
 
</p>
        <p>
          <img src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/content/binary/BBAShortterm.gif" border="0" />
        </p>
        <p>
 
</p>
        <p>
BOE
</p>
        <p>
          <img src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/content/binary/BOELongTerm.gif" border="0" />
        </p>
        <p>
 
</p>
        <p>
          <img src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/content/binary/BOEshortterm.gif" border="0" />
        </p>
        <p>
 
</p>
        <p>
In July 2007, both BBA and BOE approvals dropped dramtically. That is not to say that
they wouldn't pick up again, but couple this with the Goldman hedge fund
</p>
        <p>
          <a href="http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/article2253691.ece">http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/article2253691.ece</a>
        </p>
        <p>
and the XOver breaking through 500
</p>
        <p>
          <a href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,3a000888-e5df-4208-9515-01586f6332f2.aspx">http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,3a000888-e5df-4208-9515-01586f6332f2.aspx</a>
        </p>
        <p>
indicated that as was not well. Did we know then that things were going to be as bas
as they are? Probably not - see my comments on whether the XOver would break through
1000.
</p>
        <p>
 
</p>
        <p>
 
</p>
        <img width="0" height="0" src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/aggbug.ashx?id=beaa82be-5825-48a1-9b75-b686354c0276" />
      </div>
    </content>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <title>ISDA CDS Standard Model</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,d46874e5-a299-4c7d-b6ef-a2861ef5c7dd.aspx" />
    <id>http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,d46874e5-a299-4c7d-b6ef-a2861ef5c7dd.aspx</id>
    <published>2009-03-03T08:48:37.578125+00:00</published>
    <updated>2009-03-03T08:48:37.578125+00:00</updated>
    <category term="Credit Derivatives" label="Credit Derivatives" scheme="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CategoryView,category,Credit%2BDerivatives.aspx" />
    <content type="xhtml">
      <div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
        <a href="http://www.cdsmodel.com/">http://www.cdsmodel.com/</a>
        <img width="0" height="0" src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/aggbug.ashx?id=d46874e5-a299-4c7d-b6ef-a2861ef5c7dd" />
      </div>
    </content>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <title>UK GDP Q4</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,533e2230-7b93-46b5-9eae-273cee5b78cf.aspx" />
    <id>http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,533e2230-7b93-46b5-9eae-273cee5b78cf.aspx</id>
    <published>2009-02-25T10:52:48.515625+00:00</published>
    <updated>2009-02-25T11:09:11.34375+00:00</updated>
    <category term="Finance" label="Finance" scheme="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CategoryView,category,Finance.aspx" />
    <content type="xhtml">
      <div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
        <p>
UK GDP numbers are released in theory a total of three times for a given quarter.
For Q4 we have
</p>
        <p>
23/01/2009: Advance
</p>
        <p>
25/02/3009: Preliminary
</p>
        <p>
27/03/2009: Final
</p>
        <p>
 
</p>
        <p>
Q3 final number (23/12/2008) was -0.6% (revised down from -0.5% (P)), and has subsequently
been revised down to -0.7%
</p>
        <a href="http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/02/25/afx6092695.html">http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/02/25/afx6092695.html</a>
        <p>
Today's Q4 preliminary number was unchanged at -1.5%
</p>
        <p>
          <img src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/content/binary/UKGDPQOQ25022009.gif" border="0" />
        </p>
        <p>
Looking at the bigger picture, things aren't quite as bad as the 90s recession. Yet.
</p>
        <img src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/content/binary/UKGDPYOY25022009.gif" border="0" />
        <img width="0" height="0" src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/aggbug.ashx?id=533e2230-7b93-46b5-9eae-273cee5b78cf" />
      </div>
    </content>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <title>Stress testing mortgage bonds</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,6f21d04e-f4ea-4629-ae7b-2b11893e280f.aspx" />
    <id>http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,6f21d04e-f4ea-4629-ae7b-2b11893e280f.aspx</id>
    <published>2009-02-12T08:10:16.4375+00:00</published>
    <updated>2009-02-12T08:19:53.1875+00:00</updated>
    <category term="Housing market" label="Housing market" scheme="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CategoryView,category,Housing%2Bmarket.aspx" />
    <content type="xhtml">
      <div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
        <p>
          <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/47931550-f874-11dd-aae8-000077b07658.html">http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/47931550-f874-11dd-aae8-000077b07658.html</a>
        </p>
        <p>
          <br />
Reading this article, I was wondering whether the two statements<br />
"Even under what seem like extreme scenarios for UK and US house prices, many people
agree that few mortgage bonds outside subprime definitely look expensive. "<br />
"Also, for example, Fitch Ratings recently said that under its stress testing, which
included the assumption of a 30 per cent fall in house prices, no mortgage bond rated
triple A in the UK would see a downgrade."<br />
are linked. In particular, is 30% fall in house prices considered to be an extreme
scenario?  I belive the 30% reflects a peak to trough estimate
</p>
        <p>
          <br />
          <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8305276e-ebdf-11dd-8838-0000779fd2ac.html">http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8305276e-ebdf-11dd-8838-0000779fd2ac.html</a>
        </p>
        <p>
          <br />
yet when the derivatives market are pricing in 46% peak to trough, 
</p>
        <p>
          <br />
          <a href="http://www.tfspropertyderivatives.com/pdf/RISK&amp;MANAGE/2009/Feb-09.pdf">http://www.tfspropertyderivatives.com/pdf/RISK&amp;MANAGE/2009/Feb-09.pdf</a>
        </p>
        <p>
          <br />
30% seems very optimistic.<br /></p>
        <img width="0" height="0" src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/aggbug.ashx?id=6f21d04e-f4ea-4629-ae7b-2b11893e280f" />
      </div>
    </content>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <title>Moody shakes up AAA rating</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,c9c7fb37-7327-4c80-b71c-8ba0d7cee2a7.aspx" />
    <id>http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,c9c7fb37-7327-4c80-b71c-8ba0d7cee2a7.aspx</id>
    <published>2009-02-12T08:06:31.734375+00:00</published>
    <updated>2009-02-12T08:08:49.859375+00:00</updated>
    <category term="Finance" label="Finance" scheme="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CategoryView,category,Finance.aspx" />
    <content type="xhtml">
      <div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
        <p>
          <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fb6d3b8c-f8a6-11dd-aae8-000077b07658.html">http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fb6d3b8c-f8a6-11dd-aae8-000077b07658.html</a>
        </p>
        <p>
"The world's most highly rated countries have for the first time been put into different
categories reflecting their risks for credit downgrades, in a sign of the deepening
financial crisis."
</p>
        <p>
Reuters have done a little diagram
</p>
        <p>
          <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/UK_COMKTNEWS_MORE/idUKLB77042220090212">http://uk.reuters.com/article/UK_COMKTNEWS_MORE/idUKLB77042220090212</a>
        </p>
        <p>
It appears that the UK is not best placed after all. Quelle surprise!
</p>
        <p>
 
</p>
        <img width="0" height="0" src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/aggbug.ashx?id=c9c7fb37-7327-4c80-b71c-8ba0d7cee2a7" />
      </div>
    </content>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <title>Graduate face uphill task to find jobs</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,e004b77e-cf82-41b6-ad4e-6c985ab6fbae.aspx" />
    <id>http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,e004b77e-cf82-41b6-ad4e-6c985ab6fbae.aspx</id>
    <published>2009-02-11T08:39:24.65625+00:00</published>
    <updated>2009-02-11T08:44:57.8125+00:00</updated>
    <category term="Finance" label="Finance" scheme="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CategoryView,category,Finance.aspx" />
    <content type="xhtml">
      <div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
        <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4a3b2798-f7ac-11dd-a284-000077b07658.html">http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4a3b2798-f7ac-11dd-a284-000077b07658.html</a>
        <p>
"Law firms offering graduates a median starting salary of £37,000 a year remained
the highest payers. Investment banks were in second place, offering £35,000. 
</p>
        <p>
In third place, at £28,000 a year, were the business and financial services sectors"
</p>
        <img width="0" height="0" src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/aggbug.ashx?id=e004b77e-cf82-41b6-ad4e-6c985ab6fbae" />
      </div>
    </content>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <title>Gordon Brown doesn't get it</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,40b58694-410d-4c47-a30f-ff1d988a9cee.aspx" />
    <id>http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,40b58694-410d-4c47-a30f-ff1d988a9cee.aspx</id>
    <published>2009-02-02T19:55:23.6875+00:00</published>
    <updated>2009-02-02T19:57:01.484375+00:00</updated>
    <category term="Housing market" label="Housing market" scheme="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CategoryView,category,Housing%2Bmarket.aspx" />
    <content type="xhtml">
      <div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
        <p>
          <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/53e54c1e-f0af-11dd-972c-0000779fd2ac.html">http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/53e54c1e-f0af-11dd-972c-0000779fd2ac.html</a>
        </p>
        <p>
"Gordon Brown was on Sunday night accused of having “learnt nothing” from the economic
crisis after he defended unorthodox mortgage loans worth 125 per cent of the value
of a home.<br /><br />
After he was pressed on whether he should “shoulder the blame” for lax lending practices,
Mr Brown insisted “high percentage mortgages” were fine as long as interest rates
were low"
</p>
        <p>
Astonishing that he believes this.
</p>
        <p>
          <a href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,bc024a3b-6d2a-4ea1-bd0e-052811080655.aspx">http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,bc024a3b-6d2a-4ea1-bd0e-052811080655.aspx</a>
        </p>
        <img width="0" height="0" src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/aggbug.ashx?id=40b58694-410d-4c47-a30f-ff1d988a9cee" />
      </div>
    </content>
  </entry>
  <entry>
    <title>NOKIA issue bond</title>
    <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,c163fb2d-a647-4b99-96fb-ef1b3fd32dc8.aspx" />
    <id>http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,c163fb2d-a647-4b99-96fb-ef1b3fd32dc8.aspx</id>
    <published>2009-01-30T20:34:53.78125+00:00</published>
    <updated>2009-01-30T20:40:46.328125+00:00</updated>
    <category term="Credit Derivatives" label="Credit Derivatives" scheme="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CategoryView,category,Credit%2BDerivatives.aspx" />
    <content type="xhtml">
      <div xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">
        <p>
          <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&amp;sid=aYgTyVZ.8T.A&amp;refer=europe">http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&amp;sid=aYgTyVZ.8T.A&amp;refer=europe</a>
        </p>
        <p>
Nothing unusual in that, but prior to this, NOKIA was a company that had CDS issued,
but no debt outstanding
</p>
        <p>
          <a href="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,1bd7fe10-3b83-4e76-abc0-2e85b40483d5.aspx">http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,1bd7fe10-3b83-4e76-abc0-2e85b40483d5.aspx</a>
        </p>
        <img width="0" height="0" src="http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/aggbug.ashx?id=c163fb2d-a647-4b99-96fb-ef1b3fd32dc8" />
      </div>
    </content>
  </entry>
</feed>