I haven't seen such sulking since I lost at Monopoly when I was twelve years old (not that I ever lost). First we had the CML

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article5308033.ece

now we have the Halifax and Nationwide refusing to give a prediction for house prices in 2009

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article5372549.ece

There are a few predictions for total falls

Nationwide (prediction made in September)
House prices will fall 25 per cent between 2008 and 2010, according to Graham Beale, chief executive of the United Kingdom’s biggest building society

Barclays (December)
Fall of 15 per cent next year. John Varley, chief executive of Barclays, which owns the Woolwich mortgage brand, said that prices would fall by between 10 and 15 per cent before the end of the coming year

Lloyds TSB (December)
Fall of 10 per cent in 2009. Sir Victor Blank, the chairman of Lloyds TSB, which is taking over HBOS, said this week that house prices would fall by another 10 per cent in the next year

Halifax (December)
Fall of 20 per cent over 2008 and 2009. Martin Ellis, chief economist for Halifax, owned by HBOS, said at the start of this month that he thought house prices would fall about 20 per cent over 2008 and 2009

Capital Economics (October)
Fall of 35 per cent between 2007 and the end of 2009. The consultancy believes that prices will drop 35 per cent from the peak in 2007 and will not begin to show growth until 2011

Knight Frank, Savills (December)
Fall of 15 per cent in 2009. Both estate agents believe that prices are halfway through a fall of 30 per cent from peak to trough. Savills expects prices to begin to recover in 2010

Winkworth (December)
Fall of 10 per cent in 2009. Dominic Agace, of Winkworth, the estate agent, said that sales prices were down by 20 per cent this year and that prices would fall by a further 5 to 10 per cent in 2009

Rightmove (December)
Fall of 10 per cent in 2009. The property website has released a report predicting that house prices will decline by another 10 per cent next year

Kinleigh Folkard & Hayward (October)
Fall of 5 per cent in 2009. Lee Watts, the managing director of the estate agent, blamed irresponsible lending for a 20 per cent fall in prices this year and predicts that there will be a further 5 per cent decline next year

It seems that the consensus is that we are down around 15%, and are 10% from the bottom. I'm not sure why people pay any attention to vested interests. The market is off 19% already (>6% in the last two months alone)

http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/04_12_08historicdata.xls   (AllMon(NSA))

and as I showed yesterday, it is still 25% over fair value.

http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,a501304a-3b27-4712-a08a-c9e984ff9619.aspx

The betting exchanges are pricing in 22% falls next year - I reckon this is about right

http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,guid,87e050b0-fb3f-4e6d-b7ff-6b74ec0f2e0a.aspx